I quite like Stephen's analysis. But I'd factor in Microsoft's
vulnerability in the server market (one major body produced figures
which would, if extrapolated, indicate Microsoft loosing that market
almost completely by 2005!) and in the embeded market (CE is simply too
expensive) plus its lack of real presence in the developing world (far
too expensive) where a PS2 running Linux would seem to represent the
easiest and cheapest way of putting together an internet appliance +.
Add to that that they have nowt that runs on the big iron or even stuff
that is 64bit ready.....

Two other things: 

People have long compared Gates to Carnegie -- isn't a comparison to
Frick as appropriate?

If "Linux is Cancer" (Steve Bulmer, Microsoft CEO and really thoughtful,
caring, individual) does this mean that "Windows is Tertiary Syphilis"
and that "Mac OS 8 is a Really Bad Head Cold"? 

Cheers

John


____


Stephen Pair wrote:
> 
> Hmmm...I guess I just don't have that much respect for Microsoft...all
> the evidence I've seen points to bloat.  ;)
> 
> It see it playing out this way:
> 
> - very few people jump on C# because of its platform dependence, and
> immaturity...but they also decide to begin hedging their bets on Java
> lest they become a casualty of the MS vs. Sun war.
> - the cost of ownership of Windows and Office continues its steady climb
> in lock step with the increasing complexity and cost associated with its
> development
> - consumers (mainly businesses at first) begin to look for cheaper
> alternatives, a market developes
> - recognizing this market, developers begin to position themselves to
> deliver on both Windows and Linux/Unix (if they haven't already)
> - Developers revert to development using C/C++ (some are smart and
> choose Squeak) and seek cross platform solutions
> - More and more of the GNU tools get ported over to Windows, making
> Windows more like GNU/Windows.
> - GUI applications start to be developed that (for portability) target X
> Windows, as free X Windows servers become readily available for Windows
> - Microsoft decides its time to buy the alternative operating system,
> but can't answer one simple question, "who owns it?"  It is difficult
> for them to comprehend that, in a sense, everyone owns it, and they
> don't even come close to having enough cash for that buyout.
> - Microsoft becomes successful at marketing and selling services over
> the internet to software developers (travel booking, universal passport,
> etc) and successfully reduces its dependence on the OS revenue
> 
> RIP Windows
> 
> - Stephen
> 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: squeak-dev-admin at lists.squeakfoundation.org
> > [mailto:squeak-dev-admin at lists.squeakfoundation.org] On
> > Behalf Of Edwin Pilobello
> > Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2001 2:13 PM
> > To: squeak-dev at lists.squeakfoundation.org
> > Subject: RE: [OT] RE: Microsoft removes Netscape support from
> > IE; plug-in needsre-writing.
> >
> >
> > IMO the the M$ business model of independent cost centers
> > needs to be examined before mistaking shear size as mere
> > "water gain".  They're pretty lean and mean, albeit with deep
> > pockets.  And they are in a very bad fighting mood for having
> > been sucker punched.  Besides, M$ owns their shop and are
> > self-financed.  Even if they do loose their shirts on XP,
> > that would simply bare their pecks, abs, etc.
> >
> > The real loss is when new innovative shops "sell out" to M$
> > offers that "cannot be refused".  We all know they hide
> > behind no henchmen.  They rough up the little guys in broad
> > daylight for all of us to see.
> >
> > - edwin
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: squeak-dev-admin at lists.squeakfoundation.org
> > [mailto:squeak-dev-admin at lists.squeakfoundation.org]On Behalf
> > Of Stephen Pair
> > Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2001 9:37 AM
> > To: squeak-dev at lists.squeakfoundation.org
> > Subject: RE: [OT] RE: Microsoft removes Netscape support from
> > IE; plug-in needsre-writing.
> >
> > I don't need or want the government's help against
> > Microsoft...our industry can take care of monopolies just
> > fine (and MS will probably collapse under its own weight like
> > every bloated company eventually does).  I suppose I'm more
> > optimistic than most I guess.
> >
> > The real danger is the human desire to topple the guy on
> > top...at any cost.
> >
> > - Stephen
> >
> >
> >
> >

-- 
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Marx: "Why do Anarchists only drink herbal tea?"
Proudhon: "Because all proper tea is theft."
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