[squeakland] On Good (and Bad) Habits of Mind

[Steve Thomas]

I had a conversation with my brothers today. We are one of those "rare"
families where we tend to be opinionated and disagree once in a while.
 Anyway, while we were at the table solving all the worlds problems we
started discussing the financial crises, which lead to discussions of the
stock market and investments. The topic came to investing in gold, which
some at the table had very strong opinions about. They thought it was a
great investment and that it was a wonderful hedge for the coming
inflation/armegedon/end of the world as we know it.

I was told I really should look at a particular website of a fellow who had
predicted the market crash in 2008 and predicted the most recent drop. So I
looked and there was a chart of the S&P 500 from 1965 to 2010. The chart
clearly showed how we had just experienced a double bubble and were due for
a 60% correction.  My one brother saw this, jumped up and yelled "see that
proves my point"

Well I went back and looked at the chart later and saw it was a linear chart
(as opposed to the logarithmic).  In a linear chart the change in the Y axis
is structured in such a way that if  stock moves from $1 to $2 and if it
moves from $100 to $101 the distance moved "up the Y scale" is the same.
 Yet if you invest $1,000 in a $1 stock and can sell it for $2 you have
$2,000 (a 100% return).  If invest $1,000 in a $100 stock and sell it for
$101, you have $1,010 (a return of 1%).  In a logarithmic chart equal
movements reflect equal percentage change. (For an example check this chart
<http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=>and switch
between linear and logarithmic (log) scales to make the magical double
bubble appear.)

Now I am not sharing all this to give you investment advice (taking
investment advice from me would be a REALLY bad idea).    I am sharing
because it got me thinking how could two otherwise very intelligent people
(they both have advanced degrees, one multiple) make such a mistake?

I think it is because people have a tendency to look for and give more weigh
to evidence that supports pre-existing beliefs/mental models.  At the G4L
conference someone brought up how hard it is for kids to switch from
previously held beliefs even in the face of contradicting evidence.

Fortunately none of the folks on this list are like that, you are all open
minded and actively seek out contradicting evidence and love to be around
people who tell you, "you are wrong"

But I could be wrong ;)

Is there any curriculum around developing good habits of mind and/or any
papers/article/books on what are the Habits of Mind that are most important
to teach are kids?

Stephen
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